Archive:  January, 2014

Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad [Prediction, February 2]

January 30, 2014 0 Betting, News, Predictions, Soccer

Atletico Madrid proved that La Liga is not all about Barcelona and Real Madrid, and that if your style of play and discipline allows you to, you can challenge the so-called leaders for the top spot. They are at the same number of points with Barcelona, have one point on Real Madrid and simply cannot afford a misstep against Real Sociedad. Bet365 offers great odds for this Saturday match, even for a draw, which most likely will not hold up for long.

After a draw against Sevilla at home, Atletico Madrid has three wins, an average of two goals per match, and a great record at home where they recorded 12 wins. Even though they are the overall favorites to win, Real Sociedad is not to be discarded based on the place they have in la Liga which takes them to Europa League.
They still have their Copa del Rey clash against Racing Santander to go through, but considering they are sporting one of the strongest la Liga forms and a 1-3 win in the first leg, it is highly unlikely that Real Sociedad will lose the chance to go to the semifinals. They have Dani Estrada and Granero missing due to muscle injuries, but their goalscorer is Griezmann, who scored twice in their most recent 4-0 win over Elche.

Bottom line is that trying to stop Atletico Madrid from pursuing Barcelona might be time spent in vain, as the home side looks really strong at home with only 7 conceded goals in eleven games but since we think Real Sociedad will put up a fight, we’ll bet 6 units on both teams to score at 2.00, with odds from Bet365.

Malaga vs. Sevilla [Prediction, February 1]

January 30, 2014 0 Betting, Predictions, Soccer

In Spain La Liga is interesting not just for the fight for the top spot, the middle layer gives way to rather interesting matches. One of them is Malaga vs Sevilla, set for the 22 matchday for which we’ll take odds from William Hill.

An interesting common fact is that prior to this match both teams lost in la Liga, though Malaga had it worse, they lost against Barcelona with 3-0 and slipped to the 16th place which puts them too close to the relegation zone they want to avoid. They have 21 points out of 21 matches and it looks like a win is the one thing to keep them straight en route to climb up the La Liga table. Malaga didn’t win this year; the one thing they can boast about is the goalless draw against Valencia and a goalkeeper with great saves; Caballero is the one to thank for the Valencia point.
Malaga also plays better at home, but they do have injuries to worry about as Weligton, Samu and Gamez will be missing out, but they will be looking towards Santa Cruz to score at least once for a boost of confidence. Sevilla lost against Levante, in a match they were the clear favorites, but it just goes to prove that not always the overall favorite on paper can deliver.

Sevilla is on the 7th place with 31 points, so it is rather understandable that they are regarded as the favorites to score first. They started the year with a win over Getafe and a clean sheet, but then they had two consequent 1-1 draws against Elche and Atletico Madrid. It is difficult to know how will Malaga fair in this match, but the real issue is that Sevilla is better at transforming chances into goals, are undefeated in the last five away games and an outright win is not out of the cards.

William Hill gives 4.20 odds of Sevilla winning both halves as well as 1.90 for there to be over 1.0 goals in the first half. A clean sheet goes for 3.30 for Sevilla and 3.90 for Malaga but considering where the teams stand we’ll bet 6 units on Sevilla winning the first half at 3.07.

Shalke 04 vs. Wolfsburg [Prediction, February 1]

January 30, 2014 0 Betting, News, Predictions

Bundesliga gives way to some interesting matches that have certified favorites and not really. One of these matches is against Shalke 04 and Wolfsburg, two teams on the 5th and 6th places on the Bundesliga table that are separated by merely one point. Ladbrokes has valuable odds for both teams, though if you study them closely – it’s leaning towards favoring the home side.

Even though Shalke are the favorites of this match, not one bookie is discarding Wolfsburg. Though, if you look at Shalke’s home form, you’ll see that their losses only come from Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, while their away games finds Shalke 04 with 16 conceded goals. The opening Bundesliga 2014 match saw Shalke with a clean sheet 3-0 win over Hamburger SV that should give them the much needed boost of confidence. Huntelaar was the player in charge of scoring the first goal, but you can also look towards Farfan and Max Meyer to be the ones for scoring goals. Look at the squad the hosts are sporting, with Julian Draxler and Kevin Prince Boateng back in the mix, Shalke 04 looks like a shoe in for them to score first betting market.
Wolfsburg started Bundesliga with a defeat against Hannover 96, which was their first for the past 6 head to head games. The team fairs much better at home where they managed to score 18 goals and concede only 9. In the away games this season, Wolfsburg has somewhere around the half mark winning rate and they concede much more easily, 13 goals against.

The majority of bookies predict an even match that may very well end in a draw; either that, or both teams to score. If you go for the under 2.5 goals per match then Ladbrokes has a 2.10 odds for it to happen, but we’ll bet 6 units on the second half to be the one with the majority of goals.

Internazionale vs Catania [Recap, January 26th]

January 28, 2014 0 Betting, News, Soccer

Just when you think that things couldn’t get worse, they always do. We thought Internazionale Milano would recover from the poor form they’ve been showing lately, and placed a bet with bet365 on them to win this match against the last placed team in Serie A. Only that it wasn’t so and Inter finished the match against Catania in a goalless draw, and we lost the bet placed on them to win both halves.

Inter dominated ball possession, had a handful of chances to score, but only managed to get really close to the goal line three times, and all because Catania was dead set on defense yesterday. That’s why they didn’t excel at ball possession or chances, but they did manage to stop Palacio from scoring in the first half.
inter vs catania
Diego Milito was also close to score in the first half, but props to Catania for not budging. The extreme pace of the match died down close to the end of the first half and it could have ended even worse for Inter as Catania found a breach in their defense and Bergessio shot the ball close to the post.

Inter seems to think they played well, but couldn’t capitalize on the chances they created, which seems to be the exact opposite of what the international press think. While many deemed the match as the most boring one so far, Inter didn’t seem too phased by it and are not exactly looking forward to their match against Juve.

Result: -6 units, bet lost

Bordeaux vs. St.Etienne [Recap, January 26th]

January 28, 2014 0 Betting, News, Soccer

The bet we placed on St.Etienne to win the first half with odds from William Hill not only didn’t pay off, it also ended in a 0-2 defeat for the fourth placed Ligue 1 team. St. Etienne managed to go five matches without being defeated prior to succumbing to Bordeaux, a defeat which they most likely will attribute to the state of the pitch which was beyond unacceptable to play on.

By losing this match they also lost the golden opportunity of getting closer to Lille. If they had won this the distance between the two teams would have been of only one point. It was all due to the fact that Lille had a draw against Rennes, but St.Etienne couldn’t take the opportunity.
bordeaux vs st.etienne
Bordeaux on the other hand put a stop to their four consecutive defeats and for their first won in 2014. The first goal came into the 41 minute when Traore finally scored with a close range shot and offered the lead for Bordeaux. The second goal came shortly after the start of the second half when Henrique scored in the same manner.

Bordeaux didn’t stop here, Sertic looked close of scoring a third goal for the home side, but the ball merely brushed the far post of Ruffier’s line. There were four bookings and all of them came into the St.Etienne camp, a thing for which William Hill gave great odds.

Result: -7 units, bet lost

Sevilla vs Levante [Recap, January 25th]

January 27, 2014 0 Betting, News, Soccer

A thriller match with five goals, two red cards and six yellow cards made us lose the bet we placed with bet365 on Sevilla to win this match. They did open the score on the 26th minute through Coke, who capitalized on a chance from outside the box, and even though they started with two forwards as they were aiming at breaking Levante’s defence.

If you look back at the match as a whole you’ll see Levante was the luckiest team out of the two. Fazio tripped Barral and the referee gave the hosts a penalty, converted to a goal by the same Barral. In the second half Sevilla was also given a penalty after Diop handled the ball inside the penalty area, but Rakitic failed to score.
sevilla vs levante
Levante’s goalkeeper was in great form and managed a few important saves from Reyes and Coke. It was already a 2-2 draw in the 70th minute after Vyntra scored and the shocker came three minutes later when Simao Junior seconds after Sevilla’s goalscorer denied Barral.

One would think the match would be over, but it wasn’t so as Nikos Karabelas from Levante received a red card after a tackle on Jairo, the same player who during extra time was also sent off after pushing David Barral. Levante is now in good spirits to meet Barcelona in the second leg of their Copa del Rey clash, while Sevilla is left to figure out how to get rid of the old school Sevilla, the one that was always losing, were picking up bookings left and right, the team nobody stands the sight of.

Result: -6 units, bet lost

Internazionale vs Catania [Prediction, January 26th]

January 24, 2014 0 Betting, Predictions, Soccer

Internazionale Milano is the overall bookie favorite to win this Sunday match against Catania who is placed last. Nobody puts past Inter the poor form in which they have been lately, but surely they can turn around and show the impressive form everyone deems them for. Their last four matches show nothing but desolation, they lost four of them, and got a point from the match against Chievo.

Last time they won was against AC Milan in December, and the surprise win Genoa had over them was beyond expectations, because statistically speaking Inter was the better team. Considering that after Catania they have to play against the almighty Juve, it’s highly due they make the most out of this match.
Catania hit rock bottom in Serie A, but still maintains hopes of making it alive into the next edition. The distance between them and the other two relegated clubs is 3 points, because they are level with Livorno. For Inter, Palacio and Nagamoto, are the main goalscorers with 10 and respectively 5 goals each.

Their last two matches ended with an interesting trend, Inter scored three goals against Catania, but the match in March of last year saw Catania leading Inter with 2-0 after just 20 minutes of play. Inter couldn’t turn around the result until the second half when Alvarez and Palacio scored for a 3-2 win.

Bet365 has a Inter win at 1.33, but the goals market looks like a shoe in, for what should not have been such a difficult match for Inter. Palacio to score first and Inter to win is priced up at 5.00, and Inter to win both halves goes for 3.00 a bet which we’ll back up with 6 units.

Bordeaux vs. St.Etienne [Prediction, January 26th]

January 24, 2014 0 Betting, News, Predictions, Soccer

The former French Cup champions return to Ligue 1 after being shamefully eliminated from the Cup they were supposed to defend, after they lost by penalty shootouts against a team placed 5th in CFA 2, the fifth division from the French Championship. William Hill offers decent odds for both teams, yet somehow they follow the trend of favoring the visitors, Saint Etienne, which are placed fourth.

Bordeaux simply cannot find the winning streak that might keep them in the top 10 of Ligue 1, and they even started losing not only to top placed teams like PSG, but also to teams much inferior than them on paper. The most recent one is from a few days ago against Bastia placed 12th. They will also be missing Marc Planus, out with a knee injury, who might be back in the second half of February.
St. Etienne has a prize waiting for them at the end of this match, the possibility to challenge Lille for their Champions League qualifications spot. Last Friday they won against Lille with 2-0, played wonderfully and managed to keep another clean sheet. However they have a list of injuries that might hinder their performance a little since they’re missing out on Clerc, Bayesse and Diomande with knee injuries, plus Saadi with a groin strain until the middle of February.

Since St.Ettiene are fully expected to dominate this match, and can score through Diabate or Jussie, you can bet on them to win to nil at 4.55 or for Bordeaux in the same market at 3.60. We are going to bet 7 units on St.Etienne to win the first half at 3.62 with odds from William Hill.

Sevilla vs. Levante [Prediction, January 25th]

January 23, 2014 0 Betting, News, Soccer

We know how much better a performance at your home stadium can be and bet365 backs us up by making FC Sevilla the favorite to win in the match against Levante that not only can’t keep the score, but also scores own goals. They lost with 1-4 after leading with 1-0 in the first half.

Even though Levante is on the 11th place, and sport a negative goal difference, they have a great record against Sevilla with three draws and two wins in their last five matches. They could use this opportunity to score, maybe win and move further up in La Liga. A clean sheet is not a sure betting market; Levante in away games has been a recipe for disaster since out of five matches four ended with defeats. David Barral and El Zhar are expected to score against Sevilla, provided Barral doesn’t get sent off again.
Sevilla is pushing towards ending this La Liga among the top dogs, and it looks they are in impressive form; however, that is not enough for a team that wants to challenge the ticket for next year’s European adventure. One thing that can hinder their good performance is the fact that some of their key players are set to leave the club. Cala is linked with Getafe; Perotti is still keeping his silence, but is rumored to be leaving. Rakitic and Bacca are the ones with the goals for the home side who hasn’t lost here since November.

Sevilla is in a better shape than Levante and are expected to win this match, with bet365 giving them 1.36 odds of doing so. A draw is at 4.60, but we decided to place 6 units on the double chance of a draw and Sevilla to win the match at 3.75 with odds from bet365.

Toulouse vs. AS Monaco [Recap, January 19th]

January 20, 2014 0 Betting, News, Soccer

AS Monaco kept the five points distance from the Ligue 1 leaders, but it was the home side that had the first real chances of the game. 888sport offered us the odds of 3.85 for Monaco to win at over 1.5 goals and thus we won the bet placed on them.

Ben Yedder pulled the ball for a shot on the right side of Subasic post, but the shot was too low and the Monaco keeper had no real troubles with it. Toulouse kept trying and yet it was Monaco who scored first on the 36 minute; Kurzawa fired a shot from the left side of the pitch that left no room for arguments.

Falcao put on a good show at the end of the first half, but the referee wasn’t as impressed, and ended the half as soon as the Colombian striker got up. The same player missed another huge chance when Aguilar cleared the line of the post without any problem.

SBB-as monaco and toulouse

AS Monaco’s super signing kept showcasing his underperformance and hasn’t scored in Ligue 1 ever since November. He was taken off the field on the 69th minute and the person to replace him was the one who scored the second Monaco goal and kept the questions about the potential winner at bay.

Result: +19,95 units, bet won